"Burning money" is difficult to make a profit in five years. Where is the difficulty in the digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises?

  "I have invested for five years and hope to reach a profit balance point next year." Chloe Wang, director and general manager of Hefei Heforging Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd., said in an interview with CBN.

  As an equipment manufacturing enterprise founded in 1951, Heforging Intelligent has been digitally upgraded based on the industrial Internet platform since 2017. "Digital transformation can improve production efficiency, but the premise is that it needs to be continuously ‘ Burning money ’ This is undoubtedly a huge sum of money for equipment manufacturing enterprises that originally invested heavily in assets. From ‘ Digital upgrade ’ Judging from the return on investment of the project, we have not made any profit in the past few years. Ideally, it will still take 2 to 3 years of layout and become a new profit growth point. " Chloe Wang said.

  This is not only an individual story that happened in a traditional manufacturing enterprise, but also a microcosm of the digital transformation of domestic manufacturing enterprises in recent years.

  China’s manufacturing industry has been ranked first in the world for many years, but the overall level of informatization is still not high, and the integration with industrialization is not deep enough. The digitalization of manufacturing enterprises, especially small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, is still in its early stage. At the beginning of November, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for the Digital Transformation of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, proposing the idea of "from easy to difficult, from point to surface, long-term iteration and multi-party collaboration" for small and medium-sized enterprises, and proposing "promoting business collaboration, resource integration and data sharing of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain supply chain to help small and medium-sized enterprises realize ‘ Chain ’ Transformation "requirements.

  The "small and medium-sized enterprises" here are interpreted by the Information Technology Development Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, especially the manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises.

  According to a recent survey released by iResearch, the digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises in China is still dominated by central state-owned enterprises and large-scale private enterprises, and the demand amount is concentrated between 1 million and 5 million. The overall project cycle lasts about 4 to 18 months, which has the characteristics of high amount and long duration.

  Under the tug-of-war of multiple factors such as "demand vs cost vs effect", many people in the industry interviewed told reporters that for small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, especially those in traditional heavy asset industries such as equipment manufacturing, how to achieve sustainability in digital transformation is still a difficult problem to be solved.

  Is digitalization a "compulsory course"

  "Digitalization is not an end." Chloe Wang said that the digital transformation of manufacturing industry in an ideal state is a means to reduce costs, increase efficiency and expand new business models.

  He believes that the transformation includes two aspects: one is the digital transformation of the whole cycle from production to sales within the enterprise, and the other is to enhance the value of the data loaded by the product. The former aims to improve quality and efficiency, while the latter aims to increase the market competitiveness and customer stickiness of products by optimizing the sense of product use, and finally help enterprises realize the transformation from island type to user experience type.

  "For industry enterprises, it is still a question mark whether digital investment is just needed and to what extent digitalization can bring the greatest value to enterprises. If the transformation is carried out, SMEs will also face a problem: as the head enterprises have implemented the full-cycle digital integration innovation with the help of information means such as industrial Internet and big data platform, if they continue to rely on the digital transformation of a single link, the marginal utility of SMEs to obtain digital dividends will be weakened. " Chloe Wang said.

  Multiple factors are superimposed, is the motivation for the transformation of SMEs sufficient? This problem once troubled Zhang Youming, general manager of UFIDA Jingzhi Industrial Internet Division. However, after attending the training activities of the digital transformation of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in the Industrial Culture Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a lecturer, he had a more positive answer to this question: "Within one week after the meeting, many students contacted me actively, and some of them later became our customers. Many of these students were at the helm of small and medium-sized equipment manufacturing enterprises."

  Zhang Youming told CBN that the informatization foundation of such enterprises has been weak. "The automobile and process manufacturing industries have high requirements for refined management level and automation level of key machines needed for continuous production, so the digital progress of the industry can be promoted quickly."

  In contrast, the equipment manufacturing industry has "walked slowly" in the digital transformation. Zhang Youming believes that this is caused by multiple factors. First, as an industry with heavy investment in assets, if the equipment manufacturing industry iterates intelligent products for large equipment in the production process, the transformation cost will be even higher; Secondly, as a traditional manufacturing industry, the equipment manufacturing industry is relatively extensive, with low profit margin, and the motivation of small and medium-sized enterprises to apply new technologies is limited. In addition, the supply chain and industrial chain of the equipment manufacturing industry have been relatively fixed, and the space for business expansion is relatively limited after enterprises "go to the cloud".

  "Positive factors are increasing." Zhang Youming believes that at present, with the upgrading of downstream demand, the strength of customized production capacity has directly affected the competitiveness of equipment manufacturing enterprises, and this mode of collaborative management while designing and producing is difficult, making digitalization gradually become an urgent need for enterprises.

  "Complex products and many spare parts are the industry characteristics of the equipment manufacturing industry, and small and medium-sized enterprises are no exception. With the increase of upstream parts manufacturers in the industry, whether we can find suppliers with better cost performance and whether the supply channels are smooth is directly related to the production and sales of enterprises. To solve the synergy problem of this kind of all-factor industrial chain, it is necessary to build an industrial Internet platform. " Zhang Youming said.

  According to Zhang Youming, the industrial Internet can help small and medium-sized enterprises get through the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, reduce their raw material costs, and increase their ability to seize business opportunities and market bargaining power by receiving more downstream customers. In addition, after enterprises go to the cloud platform, production, R&D and sales are all digital. This way of "converting traditional assets into industrial data and then converting data into credit" also provides a solution to the financing problem of SMEs.

  Integrate into digital ecology

  "I have contacted many small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, and almost no business decision makers don’t know about the industrial Internet, but few can really tell what the industrial Internet architecture is? What are the business software of enterprise operation management adapted to the big data ecological environment? What business does the enterprise need ‘ Shangyun ’ ?” A person in charge of business related to enterprise cloud services and software providers told reporters.

  At the beginning of November, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Evaluation Table of Digitalization Level of Manufacturing SMEs (2022 Edition). On the index of "Digitalization Basis", 20% of the weight is "Enterprises realize digital management of business by deploying industrial Internet public cloud/private cloud/hybrid cloud platform".

  Daniel He, co-founder and CEO of Shugen Internet, told CBN that "Industrial Internet" has many extensions, including automatic equipment sensors, 5G communication solutions and many industrial solutions, but its real core is these operating systems or industrial Internet platforms. "With the head manufacturing enterprises taking the initiative to build an industry-level industrial Internet platform, it is convenient for SMEs to catch up with the digital transformation of the industry."

  It is also mentioned in the Guide to Digital Transformation of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises that small and medium-sized enterprises should integrate into the digital ecology. Apply the industrial internet platform built by the core enterprises in the industrial chain and supply chain, integrate into the core enterprise ecosystem, strengthen cooperation and support, and realize the coordinated transformation of large, medium and small enterprises. Apply the common solutions exported by leading enterprises in the industry to accelerate the improvement of their digital level.

  According to the guide, in addition to the leading enterprises in the industry, the service providers of digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises also include Internet platform enterprises, industrial Internet platform enterprises and digital transformation service providers.

  According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the third quarter of 2022, the industrial Internet has been fully integrated into 45 categories of national economy, and more than 150 characteristic platforms with certain industry and regional influence have been cultivated, and 28 cross-industry and cross-domain industrial Internet platforms have been selected, among which 32 key platforms have more than 79 million sets of connecting equipment and more than 280,000 industrial apps.

  Faced with more and more regional, industry and enterprise industrial Internet platforms, the choice and bargaining power of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in digital investment began to increase. However, new problems follow: how can SMEs "get on the platform" with lower threshold and lower cost?

  "There are three main concerns of SMEs: first, applications that can generate value, second, affordable, and third, low barriers, that is, not many IT engineers know how to use them." Daniel He said that on the supply side, in view of the characteristics and actual needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, digital transformation service providers have begun to provide lightweight and subscription services to alleviate the concerns and costs of digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises.

  The so-called "subscription service", Daniel He said, is to deposit all kinds of industrial best practices on this industrial Internet platform, and then let SMEs directly subscribe to these industrial application apps.

  According to Zhang Youming’s observation, the choices of small and medium-sized enterprises are often diversified. They can choose to share the platform with chain-length enterprises, or they can choose to rent, buy the industrial Internet platform built by third-party cloud service providers in one time or in stages.

  Daniel He believes that the industrial Internet is a huge ecology and system. From the perspective of input cost and time, even small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises with abundant cash flow need to carefully consider building their own industrial Internet platform.

  "If every enterprise does its own common platform at the bottom, on the one hand, it will spend a lot of money, spend a lot of time and need a lot of talents; On the other hand, in terms of application scale, it is actually amortization for enterprises. " Daniel He said.

  Two Challenges of Sustainable Transformation

  Traditional manufacturing enterprises are forced to digitize, and the rising labor cost is one of the major reasons. However, some interviewees told reporters that after the transformation, the employment cost of some small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises has increased instead of falling.

  "The rising labor costs in manufacturing really reflect the shortage of talents." Daniel He said.

  Zhang Youming said that on the one hand, the industrial Internet needs compound talents who know both industry and digital technology, and are also very innovative. This kind of talent training cycle is very long. The Ministry of Education added the major of industrial Internet application in 2021, that is to say, before that, the social supply of industrial Internet talents could only be cultivated by enterprises; On the other hand, if a manufacturing enterprise does not set up a science and technology company, it will not be able to recruit and retain digital talents according to its original salary system, and even cultivate the digital team of the enterprise, but this will undoubtedly not work for small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in the short term.

  In response to the challenge of insufficient information professionals’ reserve, the strategy adopted by Hezhengzhizao is to invite "foreign aid". Chloe Wang said that up to now, the technology companies that the company has cooperated or invested abroad include Iflytek and Anhui Sanheyi Information Technology Co., Ltd..

  In the long run, there are two ways to solve the talent gap problem in the digital transformation of manufacturing industry. Sunny Li, the Industrial Internet Research Office of CCID Research Institute, told CBN that on the one hand, it is necessary to give full play to the role of industry alliances and organizations as a bridge, and focus on technical shortcomings such as hardware foundation, industrial software, data transmission, and industrial control security in order to meet the needs of manufacturing applications. Jointly tackle a number of common key technologies; On the other hand, IT is necessary to deepen the cooperation between production and education, establish a joint training mechanism of "enterprise+university", and directionally transport a group of compound talents who know both IT and OT to the manufacturing industry.

  Not only is there a shortage of people, Chloe Wang said that data is the key value of intelligent manufacturing products. However, at present, the downstream customers’ recognition and utilization rate of digital application of products are not high, the added value of products is difficult to show, and the R&D investment of manufacturing enterprises cannot form positive feedback, which also makes some small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises lose the motivation of transformation.

  Just like the downstream customers of aerospace and military industries have high requirements for the digital application of high-end intelligent manufacturing, in practice, Chloe Wang found that the needs of these customers have little benefit for intelligent manufacturing enterprises. "At present, downstream industries with high demand for digital applications of products are often industries with higher demand for data security and privacy protection. This has led to the need for manufacturing companies to sign confidentiality agreements when serving customers in such industries, and to share data point to point, making it difficult to maximize the value of data. "

  Chloe Wang appealed that if the digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises is sustainable, it is necessary to build a more mature data factor market, so as to promote manufacturing enterprises to rebuild their competitive advantages through digital transformation.

[New Era, New Meteorology and New Action] Fuzhou: Deepening the Development Strategy of Digital Fujian

  In recent years, with the deepening integration of the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and the real economy, the digital economy is increasingly becoming a new engine and new kinetic energy for economic growth. Fuzhou continues to deepen the development strategy of digital Fujian, accelerate the pace of cultivating and expanding the digital economy, and show the vigorous development of big data and the Internet of Things by taking advantage of "cloud" to drive "things". In the report "China internet plus Digital Economy Index (2017)" released by Tencent Research Institute, Fuzhou Digital Economy Index ranked 9th in China, one place higher than the previous year, making it the only city in Fujian Province to be selected as one of the top ten cities in China.

  Cloud computing is surging.

  On the coast of the East China Sea, China Southeast Big Data Industrial Park, located in Changle District, Fuzhou City, looks inconspicuous from the outside, and the staff are also leisurely, but the machines in the buildings are very lively and around the clock, with trillions of data rushing here every second.

  In the second phase of Fujian Supercomputing Center located in Digital Fujian Cloud Computing Center, Gao Yuanrong, general manager of Fujian Digital Fujian Cloud Computing Operation Co., Ltd. told reporters that the server running speed here can reach 800 trillion times per second, which is continuously providing data support for government decision-making in meteorological, environmental protection, medical care and other fields. By the end of 2018, the running speed will exceed 3,000 trillion times per second.

  "In 2017, the Digital Fujian Cloud Computing Center was built in the park, including government cloud and business cloud, with 4,500 cabinets and 100,000 servers, creating a multi-tier cloud computing platform including storage cloud, computing cloud and application cloud." Cai Rongfu, director of Fujian Economic Information Center, said that as of March this year, the government cloud platform has provided 2,561 virtual servers, 1122TB storage, 506 Oracle Bone Inscriptions database instances and supporting networks and information security service for more than 540 projects in 153 provincial departments, taking the lead in realizing physical integration of data centers and business integration of information centers in the country.

  "More importantly, China Southeast Big Data Industrial Park, as an important bearing base for the digital Fujian strategy, is playing a leading role. Since last year, a number of "Guozihao" projects, such as the national Internet backbone direct connection point, the National Southeast Health and Medical Big Data Center, the National Land and Resources Big Data Application Center, and the National Work Safety Supervision and Supervision Big Data Platform (Fujian) Sub-center, have settled in the industrial park, which has driven the continuous development and growth of related industries. " Gao Yuanrong introduced that Fuzhou’s national Internet backbone direct connection point has two-way 800G interconnection ability, which is accelerating the operation of big data enterprises and the online experience of Fujian netizens every minute, and has become one of the core nodes of the national Internet.

  In addition, the park has attracted a large number of digital enterprises, and it has been officially opened for just over a year. The 360 Industrial Park, the big data centers of three major operators, namely telecom, mobile and China Unicom, and the southeast operation headquarters of Inspur Group have landed one after another, and a big data industry chain with a level of 100 billion yuan is expected to form rapidly.

  Not only are big-name digital companies gathering, but these big data projects are also accelerating into new kinetic energy for economic development. Last year, the total tax revenue of the park reached 187.52 million yuan. At present, the industrial park has initially formed a number of application platforms for big data industries such as medical care, education, tourism and location services, forming the prototype of big data, cloud computing and VR software and hardware industrial chain, showing the trend of national big data gathering and development.

  In the next step, the park will build a pattern of "two clouds in the sky, two roads on the ground and a supercomputer in the middle", namely, the government cloud and enterprise cloud in digital Fujian, the direct connection point of the national Internet backbone, the No.1 optical cable in the Straits, and the supercomputer center in Fujian Province, and strive to build a digital economy demonstration zone in Fujian and even the whole country.

  The internet of things is booming

  When you are away from home, you can monitor the water consumption at home with the mobile APP; Street lamps in residential areas can not only automatically adjust brightness, but also monitor noise and air conditions in real time; Take the elevator home, just brush your face and you can reach the living floor … … Today, such a high-tech scene can be experienced in Fuzhou Mawei City International Smart Community. As the first smart community in Fuzhou based on narrow-band Internet of Things technology, residents can enjoy the convenience and peace of mind brought by 13 narrow-band Internet of Things technologies, such as smart water meter, smart manhole cover, smart parking, smart access control and smart fire fighting.

  Not only that, last June, the largest narrow-band Internet of Things commercial project in China — — Fuzhou Smart Water Project is launched and deployed, and 300,000 smart water meters will be replaced by the end of this year, covering 953 communities. The annual water saving income in the project area is expected to reach 41,817,600 yuan, which will give full play to the massive connection, deep coverage, low energy consumption and low cost of the Internet of Things.

  Such a wide range of Internet of Things applications cannot be separated from a solid industrial foundation. As early as February 2015, Fuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone was approved as a national demonstration base for new industrialized industries (Internet of Things) and became the fourth national Internet of Things industrial park in China. At the end of 2016, the first large-scale commercial bureau of narrowband Internet of Things in China was opened in Fuzhou, marking that Fuzhou took the lead in entering the large-scale commercial stage of narrowband Internet of Things.

  According to the person in charge of the base, up to now, the base has cultivated 104 Internet of Things enterprises, including national well-known Internet of Things enterprises such as New World, Huihan Microelectronics and Shangrun, and has formed an Internet of Things industrial chain integrating information perception, transmission, processing and application. In 2017, the related output value of the Internet of Things industry in Mawei District reached 61 billion yuan, and the related output value of the Internet of Things industry in the city exceeded 70 billion yuan, accounting for about 50% of the province.

  The growing industrial scale has also won Fuzhou the "right to speak" in the industry. Up to now, only enterprises in Fuzhou Economic Development Zone have participated in the formulation of 54 standards at all levels in Internet of Things technology standardization, including 3 international standards, 38 national standards, 7 industry standards, 6 local standards, 1,807 patent applications and 904 authorized items.

  At the same time, in order to effectively integrate resources and build a mutually beneficial and win-win IoT ecosystem, in April 2017, the first Internet of Things open laboratory in China — — China Fuzhou Internet of Things Open Lab unveiled in Mawei. Peng Kong, vice president of the laboratory, introduced that the whole laboratory includes modules, power consumption testing, baseband testing, radio frequency testing, protocol conformance testing and other special laboratories, and has many sets of "high-end" equipment in the international leading position. In January 2018, the open laboratory product testing and certification service was launched for commercial use, and now it has served more than 30 enterprises. The second phase of the laboratory will start construction in the second half of this year, providing an incubation platform for small and medium-sized enterprises and helping them break through technical bottlenecks.

  Economic Daily China Economic Net reporter Xue Zhiwei

There is no "net" unfavorable TV series from blindly following IP to IP drama and realistic theme simultaneously

  During the National Day holiday, this newspaper published a series of reports on "Five Years of Literature and Art", which comprehensively reviewed the development of literature and art in China in the past five years. In this golden autumn season, it is sweet and long-term to taste the fruits of literature and art.

  Looking back on 2013, TV stations were completely occupied by parenting dramas led by hot moms and hot dads such as Little Dad and The Story of Hot Mom. Behind this trend is the official replacement of TV viewers: the remote control in the hands of aunts and grandmothers completely gave way to the post-80 s and post-90 s who entered the baby boom. By 2017, the audience deeply influenced by the network will become the main audience of a new generation of TV dramas. Their aesthetics, likes and dislikes, watching habits and so on have profoundly changed the appearance of Chinese opera — — Sun Li’s new work, which is being broadcasted, has changed the title of the play from the original heavy "Da Qin Yi Shang" to the present "When Flowers Bloom and the Moon Are Full" in order to pursue a sense of network.

  In the past five years, the most earth-shaking changes in the TV drama market can not be separated from a big word "net": the integration of broadcasting platforms, the network platform coming from behind in the competition for top resources, the IP of the theme network first, the sudden emergence of online dramas, the pursuit of "net sense" in aesthetic taste, and the capital of video websites making waves. In short, the Internet has become the most lively main battlefield and "big money owner" of China TV series. The drastic changes in the ecological environment have made the TV drama industry, which is carrying heavy burdens, add "new hates" such as sky-high pay, satellite broadcasting, cutout production and normalization of body double … … However, it is gratifying that the theme of realism is still strong after being washed away by the tide. Taking care of the present and focusing on the content is the people’s just need and the trump card of the market, and finally ushered in the "big year" of creation in 2017 after the ebb and flow.

  The content is that Wang Yue has become a consensus.

  In 2017, the TV series that have been broadcast on TV stations and ranked in the top position so far are as follows: to the sky kingdom, in the name of people, My First Half Life, Biography of Chu Qiao, Full Moon in that Year, Ode to Joy 2, Alliance of Military Strategists, White Deer Plain, Justices Seeker, Biography of New Condor Heroes and so on. Although the overall national drama is getting more and more expensive, the film pay is getting higher and higher, and the quality improvement is not directly proportional to it, if we put aside the huge base and compare it horizontally only from these ten or so "head" works, 2017 should belong to the "big year" of TV drama creation, regardless of the production level, the richness of theme or the degree of artistic completion.

  First of all, the ups and downs and disputes about IP dramas in the market have never stopped in recent years. After several rounds of reshuffle, such as blind speculation, crazy follow-up, survival of the fittest and so on, the attitude towards IP finally returned to rationality this year. The creative attitudes of "Sansheng Sanshi" and "Chuqiao Biography" obviously take the initiative to correct the past lessons of IP dramas — — Respect the law of traditional TV drama creation and use IP reasonably. These two dramas have created new and best achievements in the two main battlefields of daily and weekly dramas respectively, and the market income is considerable. What is valuable is that word-of-mouth has also successfully counterattacked, which has reversed the long-standing "prejudice" of public opinion on IP dramas and won many mainstream audiences who are not "fans". The boundary between traditional TV audience and "fan" audience is no longer clear.

  Secondly, this year has completely put an end to the trend of Empresses in the Palace and other big costume leading the mainstream market. Realistic works such as in the name of people, Ode to Joy 2, White Deer Plain, Justices Seeker and My First Half Life have the upper hand in the "explosion" echelon, regardless of quantity or quality. This also reflects that the core behind-the-scenes TV drama production team, after several years of impact, confusion and groping, has clarified its thinking, gained a firm foothold and strengthened the foundation of its creation in an invincible position. Looking at the rational return of the above-mentioned IP dramas and the counterattack of realism, it is not difficult to find that the integration and mutual reference of the two is the way out for both of them to adapt to the market.

  Online dramas and traditional TV dramas are more and more similar.

  Compared with five years ago, another drastic change in the TV drama market is the significant improvement in the content quality of online dramas, which has gradually bid farewell to shoddy production. Before and after 2013, the production cost of single episode of online drama was about 100,000 yuan on average. Now, the cost of single episode of 5 million+is not uncommon, and it must be said that "the production level is on par with top TV dramas and American dramas". In 2013, watching online dramas for a fee was just a "dream" for many people. Nowadays, a large number of super-customized dramas with narrow themes and the purpose of developing members emerge one after another. This summer, the two major video websites launched "Chasing the Murder in a White Night" and "Crime without a License" respectively, and both of them made a lot of money. The rise of online drama has also attracted many excellent directors, actors and production teams to join in the production of online drama. Xiaogang Feng, Hou Hongliang, Kong Sheng, Guan Hu, Zhang Li and other industry leaders are deeply involved in online drama production.

  The amazing performance of go princess go in 2016 is not unique this year. Self-made online dramas such as Chasing the Murder in a White Night, Spring Breeze is not as good as you, Crime without a license, Forensic Medicine Qin Ming and Ghost Blowing the Lamp are in full bloom. It is a popular practice to accurately locate specific groups and segment narrow themes in the market. "Suspense+"and "Youth+"are the two most popular categories, especially the former, which has a strong plot and a fast pace, burns the brain and reverses the audience’s excitement and hunger, which is very in line with the aesthetic needs of young online audiences.

  Network platforms and TV stations are increasingly integrated.

  Another major trend that cannot be ignored is that the cooperation between network platforms and TV stations is becoming more and more frequent, and the degree of integration is getting higher and higher. The standards of online drama and TV drama are becoming more and more unified. In the form of broadcasting, the linkage between network and station is becoming more and more frequent.

  What is the benchmark in this field is the dramatic changes in the weekly drama market. In 2015, the great success of "Hua Qiangu" in the summer file injected a booster into the weekly broadcast of Chinese drama. However, after only two years, Hua Qiangu seems like a lifetime ago to practitioners. This is because, on the one hand, the competition is more fierce, and it is normal for several weekly dramas to be updated simultaneously; On the other hand, the impact of network integration and other fragmented information has greatly dispelled market attention; The modes of first network, first network background, half network, half network, etc. emerge one after another, reflecting the tilt of the balance of supply and demand at any time.

  Take "Cloud of the Han Dynasty in Xuanyuan Sword" as an example. Since it was broadcast simultaneously in Shanghai Oriental TV Weekly Theater and iQiyi on August 8, it has attracted great attention from both inside and outside the industry because of the "half-network" broadcast mode. The so-called "half a network" means that the drama has been broadcast on TV for a certain number of episodes, and the remaining episodes are only broadcast on the network platform, and only paying members can watch it. In the eyes of the industry, from the previous background of the first network, the first network, and the half network to the half network today, it shows that the right to speak on the network platform is constantly increasing, and it also shows the confidence of all parties in the quality of plays and the increasing number of high-quality film and television dramas. Text/reporter Yang Wenjie

What conditions does China need to cut interest rates next?

Core view

In the second quarter, the three conditions of interest rate reduction may have marginal changes, which in turn will push interest rates down. (1) According to the market expectation, the Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates in June, and the domestic wide monetary space may be gradually opened. (2) At present, domestic real estate investment and sales are still in a deep adjustment range. In the first quarter, the financial strength was less than expected, the issuance of special bonds was slow, the growth rate of infrastructure may be restricted, and the weak economic fundamentals may need further care from the broad currency. (3) From a medium-and long-term perspective, in the process of resolving local debt risks, for the needs of steady growth and reducing the cost of bond swap, or the cooperation of the central bank with a wide currency, and the real estate cycle has not yet reached an equilibrium level, the wide currency is still needed for support. Under the combination of "wide currency+weak fundamentals", interest rates may usher in new catalysis.

abstract

Since the first quarter, the interest rate of 10-year treasury bonds has continued to consolidate after falling to around 2.3%.It is difficult for the interest rate to exceed 2.3% in the short term, mainly because of the following two reasons: 1) The interest rate of 1)10Y national debt has implied the expectation of 20BP interest rate reduction, but at present, under the restriction of exchange rate, the probability of short-term interest rate reduction in China is low; 2) On the economic fundamentals, most macro data in January and February were better than expected, and the bond market was adjusted back due to the recovery of sentiment in the equity market and the seesaw effect of stock and debt. If the subsequent interest rate is to go down further, it may need the guidance of MLF to cut interest rates. What are the conditions for the next rate cut? We answer this question from overseas, domestic and medium-and long-term perspectives.

Condition 1: the exchange rate restricts interest rates and waits for the Fed to cut interest rates.

The exchange rate and interest rate have once again reached their respective low levels, and the supervision faces a dilemma, or it may need to wait for the Fed to cut interest rates.There are two main reasons for the recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate: 1) In 2024, the resilience of the US economy is still strong, which is manifested in the stubbornness of inflation and the resilience of employment, and the Fed’s interest rate cut is expected to be delayed. Judging from the bitmap of the interest rate meeting in March and the expectations of the futures market, the Fed may cut interest rates at least three times in 2024 and start to cut interest rates as early as June. 2) In addition, in the early period, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy turned, and the exchange rate of the yen was favorable, and the yen depreciated. As the second largest weight in the basket of currencies of the US dollar index, the yen led to the appreciation of the US dollar and the passive depreciation of the RMB.

Condition 2: The economy still has hidden worries, and it still needs wide monetary care.

1-2Most macro indicators in June were better than expected, but the performance of high-frequency indicators such as real estate and infrastructure was still weaker than the same period of last year, which needed the care of a wide currency.In January and February, most macro indicators such as CPI, industrial added value, investment in fixed assets, export and consumption were better than expected, but credit indicators such as social financing were lower than expected, and high-frequency indicators in real estate, infrastructure and other fields were still weaker than the same period of last year. Specifically, 1) although real estate investment converged to -9% in January and February, other related indicators of real estate (such as newly started area and sales area) are still in the double-digit decline range; 2) The growth rate of infrastructure investment in January and February was at a high level of 9%, but the rate of construction site resumption after the holiday was weaker than that in the same period of last year. The issue of special bonds and the net financing of urban investment bonds in the first quarter were not optimistic, and the growth rate of subsequent infrastructure may slow down.

Condition 3 of interest rate reduction: to solve the two major risks, it is also necessary to cooperate with a wide currency.

Looking back at history, risk resolution needs substantial support from liquidity.For example, during the period of 2015-2018, in order to cope with local hidden debts and high inventory of real estate, China issued a total of about 12 trillion replacement bonds, 2.65 trillion new special bonds, and 3 trillion net PSL, with a total scale of nearly 18 trillion, which is about 26% of GDP in 2015. At the same time, the one-year LPR quotation was reduced by 120BP.

Risk 1: In the process of localized debt, infrastructure investment may be under pressure, and the pressure of debt service will rise, which requires the cooperation of a wide currency.Under the current background of localized debt, the expansion of local debt, especially implicit debt financing, may be restricted. From the perspective of capital correlation, local implicit debt has the greatest impact on the growth rate of infrastructure. In 2024, infrastructure investment may be under pressure, and from the perspective of steady growth, it still needs the support of a wide currency. In addition, from the perspective of interest payment pressure, the balance of government debt is expected to increase by 13% in 2024, while the growth rate of generalized fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2024 is only 2.5% and 7.9%. In the case of no obvious decline in interest payment cost, the pressure of government interest payment may rise further. From the perspective of reducing the pressure of government debt repayment, it is necessary to cooperate with a wide currency.

Risk 2: the downward pressure on real estate is still great, and it needs wide currency support.Judging from the scale of real estate investment, the scale of China’s real estate investment in 2023 decreased by nearly 25% compared with the high point in 2021, while Japanese real estate investment peaked in 1996, with the highest cumulative decline of 54%. From the perspective of housing price, the price index of new houses and second-hand houses in 70 cities in China has fallen by about 5% and 10% respectively compared with the high point in 2021, while the average residential land price index in Japan has fallen by 47% compared with the high point. Judging from the level of residents’ leverage ratio, China’s residents’ leverage ratio is still consolidating, while Japan’s residents’ leverage ratio started rapid deleveraging in 1999, with the maximum leverage ratio of 12.6pct. To sum up, at present, the downside risk of China’s real estate is still large, which requires the support of a wide currency.

The following is the text

Since the first quarter, the interest rate of 10-year treasury bonds has been rapidly falling to around 2.3%, and it has continued to consolidate in the near future.It is difficult for the interest rate to exceed 2.3% in the short term. We believe that there are two main reasons: (1) Compared with the one-year MLF interest rate of 2.5%, the interest rate of 10-year government bonds has implied the expectation of interest rate reduction of 20BP. However, under the restriction of exchange rate, the Federal Reserve will not budge, so the probability of short-term interest rate reduction in China is low, and it may be difficult for interest rates to fall sharply again; (2) On the economic fundamentals, the macro data in January and February were disclosed one after another, among which the export, CPI, investment in fixed assets, industrial added value and other indicators were all better than expected, and the bond market rebounded due to the recovery of sentiment in the equity market and the seesaw effect of stock and debt. If the subsequent interest rate is to go down further, it may need the guidance of MLF to cut interest rates.

What are the conditions for the next rate cut? We answer this question from overseas, domestic and medium-and long-term perspectives.

Exchange rate and interest rate once again came to their respective low levels.Since the "811" exchange rate reform in 2015, the stages when the exchange rate and interest rate are at their respective relatively low levels are mainly from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017 and the beginning of 2020. The follow-up trend of the two stages is the upward trend of interest rate and the appreciation of exchange rate. The essential reason behind this is the improvement of economic fundamentals. However, at present, the domestic economy is still in a weak recovery stage, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is delayed, so the supervision faces a dilemma between exchange rate and interest rate.

Is the American economy "soft landing" or "reflation"? When will the interest rate cut come?

The market had expected that the Federal Reserve would start to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2024. In this regard, the US bond interest rate was expected to cut interest rates in advance and fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2023; However, the recent expectations of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have been frustrated, and the interest rate of US bonds has also rebounded. The reason behind this is that the US economy is still resilient, which is manifested in the stubbornness of inflation and the resilience of employment.

From more perspectives: 1) American inventory cycle is at the bottom, and some industries such as retail and wholesale show signs of replenishment; 2) From the perspective of industry prosperity, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI are at the bottom, and the consumer confidence index is obviously picking up. As the economy continues to exceed expectations and inflation is sticky, the market’s expectations for the US economy have shifted from a soft landing to re-inflation.

Cut interest rates at least three times in 2024, and cut interest rates as early as June. Judging from the bitmap of the interest rate meeting in March, the Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates three times (25 BP each time) in 2024; Judging from the expectation of CME futures market, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates as early as June. As the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation will be reduced, and the domestic wide monetary space will also be opened.

In addition, the shift of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy in the previous period led to the depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the US dollar, which is also one of the reasons for the recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. On March 19th, the Bank of Japan announced the adjustment of the monetary policy framework, decided to raise the short-term policy interest rate from -0.1% to 0-0.1%, and cancelled the yield curve control policy (YCC), and will guide the short-term interest rate as the main policy tool in the future. The yen’s exchange rate trading was full of benefits and depreciated rapidly after the monetary policy turned. As the second largest weight in the basket of currencies of the US dollar index, the depreciation of the Japanese yen makes the US dollar appreciate and the RMB passively depreciate.

1-2Most domestic macro indicators were better than expected in June.Judging from the data of the opening year, most macro indicators in January and February were better than expected, such as CPI of 0.7% (expected 0.4%), cumulative industrial added value of 7% (expected 4.3%), cumulative investment in fixed assets of 4.2% (expected 3%), cumulative social zero of 5.5% (expected 5.4%) and export (denominated in US dollars). However, credit indicators such as social financing were lower than expected. For example, in February, social financing increased by 1.5 trillion yuan (expected 2.4 trillion yuan) and the stock of social financing increased by 9% year-on-year (expected 9.1%).

However, some macro indicators deviate from micro high-frequency indicators, especially in the fields of real estate and infrastructure.From the perspective of high-frequency indicators, high-frequency indicators such as rebar output, cement delivery rate, cumulative transaction area of residential land in 100 cities and cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities are still lower than the same period in 2023.

Specifically:

oneAlthough real estate investment converged to -9% in January and February, other related indicators of real estate are still in the double-digit decline range.In January and February, the newly started, constructed and completed housing areas were -31%, -11% and -21% respectively compared with the same period of last year. The national commercial housing sales area and sales volume were -25% and -32% respectively, and the real estate investment end and sales end were still in deep adjustment.

2From January to February, the growth rate of infrastructure investment (including electricity) was at a high level of 9%. However, judging from the situation of project resumption, the rate of post-holiday construction site resumption was weaker than that of the same period last year.According to the survey and statistics of Centennial Construction Network, as of March 12th, the rate of starting and returning to work and the rate of working on labor services in national construction sites were 75.4% and 72.4% respectively, which were 10.7pct and 11.5pct; lower than that in the same period of the lunar calendar in 2023. From January to February, the investment amount of the project also dropped by more than 40% compared with the same period of last year.

In addition, from the perspective of project funds, the current high growth rate of infrastructure may mainly come from the support of the trillion-dollar issuance of government bonds in 2023, but the situation of funds in the first quarter, especially special bonds and urban investment bonds, is not optimistic.

Credit funds increased slightly:In January-February 2024, the medium-and long-term loans of newly-added enterprises were 4.6 trillion yuan, 10 billion less than that of the same period of last year. If the proportion of medium-and long-term loans invested in infrastructure in January-February 2023 and January-February 2024 is estimated by using the proportion of medium-and long-term loans invested in infrastructure in Q1 2023 and 36% in the whole year of 2023 respectively, it is estimated that 167 billion yuan will be invested in infrastructure in January-February.

The issuance of new special bonds is slow:From January to March, 2024, a total of 634.2 billion new special bonds were issued, 722.6 billion less than the same period of last year, and the issuance progress was slow. Among them, the proportion invested in infrastructure (excluding infrastructure construction of municipal and industrial parks) is about 35%, which is slightly higher than the proportion invested in infrastructure in Q1 2023 (about 34%). The scale of special debt invested in infrastructure in January-March was about 237.9 billion less than that in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of about -52%.

The net financing of urban investment bonds has been reduced:From January to March, the net financing of urban investment bonds was only 166.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 481.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -74%.

Generally speaking, the performance of domestic real estate is still weak, and infrastructure investment may also weaken under the background of localized debt. M1, the price level continues to run at a low level, and it still needs the active care of the wide currency to promote its low level recovery.

Looking back at history, risk resolution needs substantial support from liquidity.

During 1998-2004, faced with the impact of the Asian financial crisis and the high non-performing loan ratio in the banking industry, fiscal policy, on the one hand, issued a total of 210 billion treasury bonds for three consecutive years to expand government investment, on the other hand, issued 270 billion special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital. The total scale of the two debts accounted for 5.6% of GDP in 1998, and at the same time, monetary policy was greatly relaxed, and the one-year loan interest rate was reduced by 306BP.

During 2015-2018, the regulatory authorities actively solved the problem of hidden debts of local governments by "opening the front door and blocking the back door", and issued a total of about 12 trillion replacement debts, which made the local hidden debts explicit and gave local governments the right to issue bonds. During the period, they issued a total of 2.65 trillion new special debts. In addition, the regulatory authorities also realized the goal of real estate destocking through the monetization of shed reform, with a cumulative net investment of about 3 trillion PSL funds. The total scale of these funds is as high as nearly 18 trillion, which is about 26% of GDP in 2015. At the same time, monetary policy has remained loose during this period, and the one-year LPR quotation rate has been reduced by 120BP.

In 2023-2024, in the face of local debt risks and the downturn of the real estate cycle, it is estimated that 7.7 trillion yuan of new local special bonds will be issued, 1.5 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds will be issued, 1 trillion yuan of additional government bonds will be issued, and 1 trillion yuan of special government bonds will be issued, and the accumulated PSL funds will be about 0.25 trillion yuan, totaling over 11 trillion yuan, which is about 9% of GDP in 2023. Since 2023, the one-year LPR quotation rate has been reduced by 20BP.

2024In 2006, we continued to face two major risks: local debt and real estate downturn. In the process of resolving the two major risks, we also need the cooperation of wide currency.

Risk 1: The local government debt pressure may still rise, which should not be underestimated.Compared with 2022, in 2023, the debt ratio of all provinces rose to varying degrees, among which the debt ratio of 12 high-risk areas was generally high and rose rapidly. In 2023, only the debt ratio of Beijing, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Xizang was within the warning line of 120%. In 2024, the scale of local special debt will still increase, but the pressure of local fiscal revenue is still there, and the debt pressure may continue to climb, and localized debt has a long way to go.


Risk 1: Under the background of debt conversion, infrastructure investment may be under pressure.
Judging from the document "Measures for Strengthening the Management of Government Investment Projects by Classification in Key Provinces (Trial)" issued by the General Office of the State Council, the key debt-oriented provinces will strictly control the new government investment projects and strictly clean up and standardize the government investment projects under construction before the local debt risk drops to a medium or low level. Judging from the investment plan of major projects, the investment amount of key projects in 2024 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, Ningxia and other key debt-paying provinces and cities decreased significantly compared with that in 2023.

Risk 1: Infrastructure investment may be under pressure, and stable growth requires a wide currency.Under the current background of localized debt, the expansion of local debt, especially the financing of implicit debt, may be restricted, and from the perspective of capital correlation, local implicit debt has the greatest impact on the growth rate of infrastructure. At present, the proportion of hidden debts and infrastructure in 12 provinces is about 19% and 26%. In 2024, if the growth rates of hidden debt and infrastructure in 12 provinces are -5% and -5% respectively, and the growth rates of hidden debt and infrastructure in non-12 provinces are 8% and 10% respectively, the corresponding annual growth rates of hidden debt and infrastructure are 5.7% and 6.1% respectively.

Risk 1: the pressure of interest payment is rising, and wide finance also needs the cooperation of wide currency.In addition, from the pressure of interest payment, the interest payment expenditure of government bonds reached 1.9 trillion in 2023, accounting for 6.7% and 5.1% of the general fiscal revenue and expenditure, up by 0.4 and 0.3pct; year-on-year; In 2024, the balance of government debt is expected to increase by 13%, while the growth rate of generalized fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2024 is only 2.5% and 7.9%. Under the condition that the cost of interest payment has not decreased significantly, the pressure of government interest payment may further rise. Judging from the rhythm of bond issuance, the issuance of government bonds will start in May or will enter a peak period; Judging from the maturity of bonds, it is estimated that about 10 trillion government bonds will mature in 2024, which means that if the interest payment cost of new bonds after bond swap is reduced by 1BP, the interest payment will be saved by 10 billion. From the point of view of reducing the pressure of government debt repayment and reducing the cost of bond swap, wide finance needs the cooperation of wide currency.

Risk 2: Is the downside risk of real estate over? From the perspective of quantity.

From the perspective of housing demand,According to the calculation of Oriental Jincheng, the sales area corresponding to the demand for new housing in cities and towns in 2021-2025 is about 718 million square meters. Suppose that the center of China’s real estate sales area is about 1 billion square meters. Although the sales area of China’s real estate is close to the center level at this stage, the sales area of real estate above the center in the past decade or so has overdrawn some of the housing demand in subsequent years, and this part of the real estate bubble may take a long time to clear up.

Judging from the scale of real estate investment,In 2023, the scale of China’s real estate investment was about 11 trillion yuan, which was nearly 25% lower than the high point in 2021. Judging from Japan’s experience, Japan’s real estate investment peaked in 1996, and now it is stable at about 18 trillion yen, with a cumulative decline of nearly 40% from a higher point and a maximum cumulative decline of 54%.

Risk 2: Is the downside risk of real estate over? From the perspective of price.

From that perspective of house price,According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, by the end of 2023, the prices of second-hand houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen had dropped by 17%, 19%, 18% and 31% respectively. The price index of new and second-hand houses in 70 cities disclosed by the Bureau of Statistics peaked in August 2021, and by February 2024, it had dropped by about 5% and 10% respectively. From the experience of Japan, the average residential land price index in Japan reached a high point in 1991, and then declined all the way. In 2023, the average residential land price index has fallen by 47% from a high point.

Residents’ income confidence is weak, and the expected decline in house prices accounts for a relatively high proportion.In addition, according to the results of the central bank’s questionnaire survey, in the fourth quarter of 2023, only 12.6% of residents thought that their income had "increased", down 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the residents’ confidence index for future income further fell to 47%; From the perspective of house price expectation, only 12% residents expect house prices to rise, while 20.2% residents expect house prices to continue to fall.

Risk 2: the downward pressure on real estate is still great, and it needs wide currency support.

Japan’s untimely policy response is one of the reasons why it has been lost for 20 years.The Economic White Paper issued by the Planning Department of Japan in 1992 holds that "the economic slowdown that began at the end of 1990 was mainly due to the influence of preventive monetary tightening and self-adjustment in the process of maintaining economic balance"; It was not until 1993 that the Japanese government realized that this economic downturn was different from the previous economic recession cycle. Japan’s discount rate changed from tight to loose in July 1991 and began to cut interest rates. In September 1993, the discount rate fell to 1.75%, which was lower than the lowest interest rate before the bubble burst, but it did not stop the downward trend of the real estate cycle. However, Japan’s land policy, which was tightened in the early stage, was not abolished until 1998. However, at this time, the impact of the bursting of the asset bubble on the behavior of residents and enterprises has been difficult to easily reverse, and the Japanese economy has fallen into a lost twenty years.

Judging from the leverage ratio of residents,The leverage ratio of Chinese residents has been consolidating at around 62% since it reached a high point in 2020; From the experience of Japan, after the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble in 1990, the leverage ratio of Japanese residents was consolidating for a period of time. In 1999, it started rapid deleveraging and bottomed out in 2007, with a deleveraging rate of 12.6pct.

Generally speaking, the downside risk of China’s real estate industry may not be over yet, and it still needs the support of a wide currency.

In the second quarter, the above three factors may have marginal changes, thus pushing down interest rates.(1) From the market expectation, the Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates in June, and the domestic RRR cut space may be gradually opened. (2) At present, domestic real estate investment and sales are still in a deep adjustment range. In the first quarter, the financial strength was less than expected, the issuance of special bonds was slow, the growth rate of infrastructure may be restricted, and the weak economic fundamentals may need further care from the broad currency. (3) From a medium-and long-term perspective, in the process of resolving local debt risks, for the needs of steady growth and reducing the cost of bond swap, or the cooperation of the central bank with a wide currency, and the real estate cycle has not yet reached an equilibrium level, the wide currency is still needed for support. Under the combination of "wide currency+weak fundamentals", interest rates may usher in new catalysis.

Authors: changjiang securities Yu Bo, Song Xiaoxiao, Jiang Jiazhen.,Source:Yu Bo’s Macro NotesOriginal title: "What are the conditions for the next interest rate cut? 》

This article is from Wall Street. Welcome to download the APP to see more.

Reporting/feedback

The synchronous technology of pushing and assembling shield machine was successfully tested in Shanghai

This is the "Jiyue" shield machine in the workshop of Shanghai Tunnel Machinery Manufacturing Branch (photo taken on April 13, drone photo).

The synchronous technology of shield tunneling and assembling independently developed by Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. has been successfully tested recently, and the first push-and-assemble synchronous shield machine is about to go offline. In the process of tunnel construction, the shield machine using this technology will realize the parallel operation of tunneling and assembly, which will greatly improve the construction efficiency.

In the traditional shield machine construction, the construction process is generally advancing, stopping and assembling. Every time the shield machine goes forward, it needs to stop in situ, complete the assembly of a segment, and then continue the excavation. Tunnel excavation and segment assembly are carried out in series. The parallel operation of excavation and assembly can be realized by applying the push-and-push synchronization technology. Relevant simulation tests show that the push-and-push synchronization technology will greatly reduce the operation time of each ring segment of shield machine and improve the construction efficiency by 30% to 50%.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yushe

A worker uses a waist-hanging remote control to operate and test the push-and-pull synchronous assembly of the "Jiyue" shield machine (photo taken on April 13).

The synchronous technology of shield tunneling and assembling independently developed by Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. has been successfully tested recently, and the first push-and-assemble synchronous shield machine is about to go offline. In the process of tunnel construction, the shield machine using this technology will realize the parallel operation of tunneling and assembly, which will greatly improve the construction efficiency.

In the traditional shield machine construction, the construction process is generally advancing, stopping and assembling. Every time the shield machine goes forward, it needs to stop in situ, complete the assembly of a segment, and then continue the excavation. Tunnel excavation and segment assembly are carried out in series. The parallel operation of excavation and assembly can be realized by applying the push-and-push synchronization technology. Relevant simulation tests show that the push-and-push synchronization technology will greatly reduce the operation time of each ring segment of shield machine and improve the construction efficiency by 30% to 50%.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yushe

This is the "Jiyue" shield machine in the workshop of Shanghai Tunnel Machinery Manufacturing Branch (photo taken on April 13th).

The synchronous technology of shield tunneling and assembling independently developed by Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. has been successfully tested recently, and the first push-and-assemble synchronous shield machine is about to go offline. In the process of tunnel construction, the shield machine using this technology will realize the parallel operation of tunneling and assembly, which will greatly improve the construction efficiency.

In the traditional shield machine construction, the construction process is generally advancing, stopping and assembling. Every time the shield machine goes forward, it needs to stop in situ, complete the assembly of a segment, and then continue the excavation. Tunnel excavation and segment assembly are carried out in series. The parallel operation of excavation and assembly can be realized by applying the push-and-push synchronization technology. Relevant simulation tests show that the push-and-push synchronization technology will greatly reduce the operation time of each ring segment of shield machine and improve the construction efficiency by 30% to 50%.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yushe

This is the "Jiyue" shield machine in the workshop of Shanghai Tunnel Machinery Manufacturing Branch (photo taken on April 13th).

The synchronous technology of shield tunneling and assembling independently developed by Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. has been successfully tested recently, and the first push-and-assemble synchronous shield machine is about to go offline. In the process of tunnel construction, the shield machine using this technology will realize the parallel operation of tunneling and assembly, which will greatly improve the construction efficiency.

In the traditional shield machine construction, the construction process is generally advancing, stopping and assembling. Every time the shield machine goes forward, it needs to stop in situ, complete the assembly of a segment, and then continue the excavation. Tunnel excavation and segment assembly are carried out in series. The parallel operation of excavation and assembly can be realized by applying the push-and-push synchronization technology. Relevant simulation tests show that the push-and-push synchronization technology will greatly reduce the operation time of each ring segment of shield machine and improve the construction efficiency by 30% to 50%.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yushe

Two workers were running and debugging the "Jiyue" shield machine in the workshop (photo taken on April 13).

The synchronous technology of shield tunneling and assembling independently developed by Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. has been successfully tested recently, and the first push-and-assemble synchronous shield machine is about to go offline. In the process of tunnel construction, the shield machine using this technology will realize the parallel operation of tunneling and assembly, which will greatly improve the construction efficiency.

In the traditional shield machine construction, the construction process is generally advancing, stopping and assembling. Every time the shield machine goes forward, it needs to stop in situ, complete the assembly of a segment, and then continue the excavation. Tunnel excavation and segment assembly are carried out in series. The parallel operation of excavation and assembly can be realized by applying the push-and-push synchronization technology. Relevant simulation tests show that the push-and-push synchronization technology will greatly reduce the operation time of each ring segment of shield machine and improve the construction efficiency by 30% to 50%.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yushe

Workers observe the mechanical operation under the push-and-push synchronous assembly of the "Jiyue" shield machine (photo taken on April 13).

The synchronous technology of shield tunneling and assembling independently developed by Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. has been successfully tested recently, and the first push-and-assemble synchronous shield machine is about to go offline. In the process of tunnel construction, the shield machine using this technology will realize the parallel operation of tunneling and assembly, which will greatly improve the construction efficiency.

In the traditional shield machine construction, the construction process is generally advancing, stopping and assembling. Every time the shield machine goes forward, it needs to stop in situ, complete the assembly of a segment, and then continue the excavation. Tunnel excavation and segment assembly are carried out in series. The parallel operation of excavation and assembly can be realized by applying the push-and-push synchronization technology. Relevant simulation tests show that the push-and-push synchronization technology will greatly reduce the operation time of each ring segment of shield machine and improve the construction efficiency by 30% to 50%.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yushe

This is the "Jiyue" shield machine in the workshop of Shanghai Tunnel Machinery Manufacturing Branch (photo taken on April 13th).

The synchronous technology of shield tunneling and assembling independently developed by Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. has been successfully tested recently, and the first push-and-assemble synchronous shield machine is about to go offline. In the process of tunnel construction, the shield machine using this technology will realize the parallel operation of tunneling and assembly, which will greatly improve the construction efficiency.

In the traditional shield machine construction, the construction process is generally advancing, stopping and assembling. Every time the shield machine goes forward, it needs to stop in situ, complete the assembly of a segment, and then continue the excavation. Tunnel excavation and segment assembly are carried out in series. The parallel operation of excavation and assembly can be realized by applying the push-and-push synchronization technology. Relevant simulation tests show that the push-and-push synchronization technology will greatly reduce the operation time of each ring segment of shield machine and improve the construction efficiency by 30% to 50%.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Yushe

1111.jpg

[CCTV Quick Review] Promote the process of international cooperation in vaccines and build a community of human destiny.

  On August 5th, the Supreme Leader of president delivered a written speech to the first meeting of the COVID-19 International Forum on Vaccine Cooperation. Chairman of the Supreme Leader emphasized that China has always adhered to the concept of human health community, provided vaccines to the world, especially to developing countries, and actively carried out cooperative production. We are willing to work with the international community to promote the process of international cooperation in vaccines and build a community of human destiny.

  The speech by the Chairman of the Supreme Leader once again clarified China’s proposition of unity and cooperation and joint efforts to fight the epidemic, reiterated the firm stance of helping developing countries solve the vaccine dilemma, and announced specific actions to promote the fair access of vaccines around the world and bridge the "immune gap", which pointed out the direction for the world to overcome the epidemic as soon as possible and contributed to China’s strength.

  In May this year, the Chairman of the Supreme Leader announced at the Global Health Summit five initiatives of China to support global solidarity against the epidemic, including the initiative to establish an international forum on vaccine cooperation in COVID-19. This initiative put forward by the Chairman of the Supreme Leader aims at the crux of the problem of fair and reasonable global vaccine distribution from the height of building a community of human destiny, and is committed to building a communication platform to enhance consensus, eliminate differences and solve the realistic problem of unbalanced vaccination. The initiative has received positive response from the international community. At its first meeting, the Forum reached a number of consensuses on improving vaccine production capacity in developing countries, exempting intellectual property rights, lifting export restrictions on vaccines and raw materials, and strengthening communication and coordination of vaccine regulatory policies, which is of great significance to promoting international cooperation against epidemic diseases and boosting confidence in multilateralism.

  At present, the epidemic situation in many countries has rebounded, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 has exceeded 200 million. Vaccination is a powerful means to prevent the spread of the virus. To overcome the epidemic, it is necessary to build a global immune barrier by increasing the vaccination rate around the world. However, due to their own economic strength, scientific and technological strength and comprehensive national strength, the vaccination rate in underdeveloped countries and regions is generally low. Among the countries where the proportion of the whole vaccination population exceeds 30%, European and American countries account for the majority. To change this unbalanced situation and make up the shortcomings of vaccination, we must rely on international cooperation.

  The epidemic knows no borders, and in the face of common threats, no country can be immune to it, blame others, politicize the epidemic and stigmatize the virus, which will only further push human society to a dangerous situation. Governments, enterprises and international organizations should strengthen cooperation, abandon narrow "vaccine nationalism", provide inclusive financing support through export, donation and technology transfer, and take strong actions such as scientific and non-discriminatory principles when studying entry control measures to solve the problem of vaccine production capacity and distribution as a whole. Big countries in vaccine research, development and production should take responsibility and provide more vaccines to developing countries in urgent need.

  The Chairman of the Supreme Leader has emphasized on many diplomatic occasions that China will regard vaccines as global public goods and make China contribution to the accessibility and affordability of vaccines in developing countries. In this written speech, the Chairman of the Supreme Leader announced new measures: throughout this year, China will strive to provide 2 billion doses of vaccine to the world; Decided to donate $100 million to the COVID-19 Vaccine Implementation Plan. Continue to make efforts to promote international cooperation on vaccines, and China has fulfilled its promise with practical actions.

  If the world loves each other, it will be ruled, and if it is evil, it will be chaotic. Living in the same global village, human beings have become a community of destiny with you and me. Only by joining hands to overcome the difficulties, solidly promoting international cooperation in vaccines, and making vaccines benefit more people, can we win the victory of global epidemic prevention and control at an early date and jointly protect the healthy and bright future of mankind. Time waits for no one, only action. Let’s continue to work hard to build a community of human destiny with international cooperation in vaccines as the driving force!

During the investigation by the Development and Reform Commission of Heilongjiang Province, Lan Shaomin emphasized that empowerment and momentum should be the first to give full play to promote the re

  The 23rd (Reporter Guo Minghua) On 23rd, Lan Shaomin, Chairman of the Heilongjiang Provincial Political Consultative Conference, went to the Provincial Development and Reform Commission to conduct research on the industrial revitalization. He stressed that it is necessary to speed up the construction of the "4567" modern industrial system in accordance with the important arrangements made by the thirteenth Party Congress of Heilongjiang Province, and promote the all-round revitalization of Longjiang.

  Lan Shaomin first came to the Industrial Development Department to learn more about the bio-economic status, development goals, planning and related projects in the province. Subsequently, I checked the operation of the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Heilongjiang Province, asked about the approval procedures, actual efficiency and other issues, and communicated with the staff around the issues of "one-time notification", "approval without meeting" and the connection and integration between the platform and relevant departments. When investigating the digital service platform for dispatching and promoting key projects in Heilongjiang Province, we learned about the construction of key projects in the province, and made video connection with the site leaders of three projects.

  After listening to the general work introduction and discussion, Lan Shaomin pointed out that it is very important to implement the spirit of the important instructions given by the Supreme Leader General Secretary to our province, implement the decision-making arrangements of the provincial party committee, and find new advantages and opportunities for development. It is necessary to study regional planning and strategy in depth, deeply integrate into the domestic big cycle, realize the domestic and international double cycle efficiently, and accelerate the construction of a new highland open to the north. It is necessary to speed up the creation of a new engine for economic development, and work hard and achieve results in the digital economy, the bio-economy and the ice and snow economy, and the creative design industry. It is necessary to speed up the cultivation of large enterprises with international competitiveness and leading enterprises with industrial chain control, influence and motivation; Accelerate the pace of two-way opening to the outside world, and make overall plans for industrial upgrading and breakthroughs in projects undertaken by industries from two aspects of time and space; Accelerate the streamlining of key industries, give full play to the efforts of the whole province to form the policy advantages, industrial ecology and supporting environment for the development of key industries, form the core competitiveness of attracting investment, and unswervingly fight hard to improve the way, adjust the structure, expand the total volume and increase efficiency. It is necessary to adhere to customer demand and user orientation, continuously improve the level of business environment construction, further create a strong atmosphere of pro-business and valuing business, promote the formation of a broad consensus of "seizing opportunities to win over Shanhaiguan and make great investments in Heilongjiang", and create favorable conditions for revitalization and development.

  Zhang Yazhong, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of Heilongjiang CPPCC and Director of the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, participated in the survey.

Administrative detention of driving without a license, drunk driving 25 people again! Hepu traffic police have achieved remarkable results in carrying out traffic order rectification actions for motor

In order to prevent and reduce road traffic accidents in the jurisdiction, recently, the Traffic Management Brigade of Hepu County Public Security Bureau joined forces with township governments, police stations in the jurisdiction, transportation and other departments to carry out traffic order rectification actions for motorcycles and electric bicycles, focusing on investigating and dealing with traffic violations such as drunk driving, license-related, overload and overcrowding, fake license plates, failure to wear safety helmets, and overdue annual inspection. At the same time, it implemented "zero tolerance" for illegal personnel in driving without a license, investigated and detained them together, and driving without a license. Since October 20th, the Traffic Management Brigade has investigated and dealt with a total of 1,438 traffic violations on the spot, including 34 cases without a license and 2 cases of drunk driving. A total of 25 people were administratively detained, including 4 cases of drunk driving again and 21 cases of driving without a license, effectively eliminating road safety hazards and creating a good road traffic environment.

Exposure of traffic violations

What are the penalties for "second drunk driving"?

According to Article 91 of the Road Traffic Safety Law, anyone who drives a motor vehicle after drinking alcohol shall be temporarily detained for six months and fined more than 2,000 yuan in 1000 yuan.Those who are punished for driving a motor vehicle after drinking and driving a motor vehicle after drinking again shall be detained for not more than 10 days, fined not less than 2,000 yuan in 1000 yuan, and their motor vehicle driving licenses shall be revoked.

01

At 0 o’clock on October 19, 2022, the police of the traffic control brigade were on duty at the intersection of Dongjiaochang Road and Yan ‘an Road in Lianzhou Town, Hepu County. Zeng’s moped driving Gui EE89** was stopped on the spot by the traffic police on duty. After testing it with an alcohol tester, its breath alcohol content was45mg/100mlIt belongs to driving a motor vehicle after drinking. After investigation, it was found that Zeng was punished for driving a motor vehicle after drinking alcohol in April 2021.Driving a motor vehicle after drinking again. In the end, the police on duty will punish the driver for driving a motor vehicle for drinking again.Administrative detention for five days, fine of 1000 yuan, and revocation of motor vehicle driving license.Administrative punishment.

02

At 20: 57 on September 15, 2022, the police of the Traffic Management Brigade was on duty at 200m from Shangyang to Shagang Road in Xingdaohu Town, Hepu County. Yang was stopped by the traffic police on duty while driving Gui E856** motorcycle. After being tested by an alcohol tester, his breath alcohol content was20mg/100mlIt belongs to driving a motor vehicle after drinking. On the same day, after system inquiry, Yang was punished for driving a motor vehicle after drinking alcohol on December 10, 2019. He was punished for driving a motor vehicle after drinking alcohol. This time,Driving a motor vehicle after drinking again. In the end, the police on duty will punish the driver for driving a motor vehicle for drinking again.Administrative detention for five days, fine of 1000 yuan, and revocation of motor vehicle driving license.Administrative punishment.

Being able to drive does not mean being qualified to drive! !

"driving without a license" personnel either did not obtain a driver’s license, or revoked their driver’s license after being punished for traffic violations. These people drive on the road, subjectively lack respect for traffic safety laws and regulations, ignore traffic safety, and there are many traffic safety hazards, which can easily lead to traffic accidents.

According to Article 19 of the Road Traffic Safety Law: "To drive a motor vehicle, a motor vehicle driver’s license shall be obtained according to law." The traffic administrative department of the public security organ will, in accordance with Article 99 of the Road Traffic Safety Law,A fine of not less than 2,000 yuan in 200 yuan may be imposed, and a detention of not more than 15 days may be imposed.. At the same time, according to Article 99 of the Road Traffic Safety Law,If a motor vehicle is driven by a person who has not obtained a motor vehicle driver’s license or whose motor vehicle driver’s license has been revoked or temporarily detained, the traffic administrative department of the public security organ shall impose a fine of more than 2,000 yuan on 200 yuan and may concurrently revoke the motor vehicle driver’s license.

03

At 8: 50 on October 21st, 2022, Ning Mou (male, 22 years old, from Taiping Town, ling shan) drove Gui E208** moped to 240km+200m of S207 Provincial Road in Changle Town, Hepu County, and implemented it.Driving a motorcycle without a motor vehicle driver’s licenseThe illegal act was seized by the police on the spot. After being summoned for questioning, Ning confessed to the illegal behavior of his motor vehicle in driving without a license. On October 21, the traffic control brigade made it according to law.Administrative detention for five days and a fine of 300 yuan.Administrative punishment.

04

At 10: 49 on October 20, 2022, Zhongmou drove the Gui E270** ordinary two-wheeled motorcycle to the intersection of Jiefang Road and Dinghai North Road in Hepu County, and implemented it.Driving a motorcycle without a motor vehicle driver’s licenseThe illegal act was seized by the police on the spot. After being summoned for questioning, Zhong confessed to the illegal behavior of his motor vehicle in driving without a license. On October 20, the traffic control brigade made it according to law.Administrative detention for five days and a fine of 300 yuan.Administrative punishment.

Source: Traffic Management Brigade of Hepu County Public Security Bureau

Reporting/feedback

Xiaomi YU7 SUV is expected to be launched in 2024, and the estimated starting price is about 245,900 yuan.

Xiaomi’s upcoming YU7 SUV is expected to be officially launched from June to July 2024. According to Xiaomi’s intelligent voice assistant "Little Love Classmate", the starting price of YU7 is about 245,900 yuan. The design goal of this model is to provide more competitive dimensions and performance compared with competing models such as Tesla Model Y and HarmonyOS Zhixing Zhijie R7.

The design of YU7 is very modern, with a vehicle length of 4.999 meters and a wheelbase of 3 meters, which is superior to many SUVs of the same class in size. The four-wheel drive version will be equipped with front and rear dual motor systems, with a comprehensive power of 508kW, of which the maximum power of the rear motor is 288kW, which is significantly higher than the super motor V6s(275kW) of Xiaomi SU7, and its performance has been significantly improved.

In terms of appearance, YU7 adopts a brand-new headlight design, and integrates elements such as clamshell cover, inclined air duct, narrow fender side camera, closed door handle and black widened wheel eyebrows, making its shape more dynamic and scientific. In the rear part, YU7 is equipped with a sports spoiler, a rear camera, a tail wing and a brand-new ring light group, which further enhances its sports style. In terms of wheels, users can choose 19, 20 or 21-inch wheels to provide more personalized choices.

The design inside the car is also innovative and luxurious. According to the spy photos exposed, YU7′ s interior will cancel the physical buttons, adopt a color-matching plaque and a multi-function steering wheel, and be equipped with HUD head-up display, brand-new leather seats (expected to support ventilation, heating and massage functions), wireless mobile phone charging, double water cup holder, remote interactive screen, floating central control screen and other high-tech configurations. In addition, electronic door handles and penetrating central handrails further enhance the sense of technology and comfort in the car.

YU7 will be built based on 800V high-voltage platform, and the four-wheel drive version will be equipped with Jiangsu Times ternary lithium battery, with a curb weight of 2405kg. In terms of performance, the highest speed of YU7 can reach 253km/h, and the acceleration time of 0-100km/h is expected to be 3 seconds, showing its powerful power and acceleration performance.

As an important layout for Xiaomi to enter the automobile market, YU7 will become the new favorite of consumers with its luxurious configuration, strong performance and avant-garde design. It is expected to be officially listed in the second half of 2024 and become a dark horse in the field of intelligent electric SUV.

"Anti-wolf spray" is a contraband used by "wolves". Who will take care of the "online shopping"?

  Blowing darts, hunting bows, electric batons, tear gas, anti-wolf spray … … Can these goods that can cause harm to the human body be bought and sold at will?

  "These are all controlled devices. According to relevant national laws and regulations, sales of controlled devices need to be filed with the public security department to obtain corresponding licenses." The relevant person in charge of Chaoyang Branch of Beijing Public Security Bureau said.

  However, the reporter found that although these prohibited items and control devices are hard to find in physical stores, they are easy to "find" on the Internet.

  Contraband can be bought on e-commerce platforms and search platforms.

  Most consumers don’t know that anti-wolf spray is a prohibited item. "It can make the bad guys lose their mobility in a short time without causing permanent damage. I think it is quite reliable. Why should it be banned?" Li Mo, a bank employee in Beijing, asked.

  In fact, anti-wolf spray may not prevent wolves, but it may be used by "wolves" to infringe on others. In Dongzhimen Station of Beijing Metro Line 2 in 2014, a passenger sprayed anti-wolf spray on the explosion-proof blanket, causing many passengers to feel unwell. In Guangzhou, Xi ‘an and other cities, there have also been incidents in which anti-wolf spray caused public disorder. As early as 2012, Taobao formulated the Catalogue of Prohibited Goods and Information, which explicitly prohibited platform merchants from selling such control devices.

  Li Mo said that she searched for anti-wolf spray on Taobao, and the website would prompt "According to relevant laws, regulations and policies, it cannot be displayed ‘ Anti-wolf spray ’ Related baby. " When searching in JD.COM Mall, you can’t find the anti-wolf spray directly, but other anti-wolf devices of various colors will pop up in the window, such as the anti-wolf alarm, and it is specially marked as "Non-spray". Li Mo’s experience is: "‘ Non-spray ’ It is the cover for merchants to cope with inspections. If you contact customer service again, you can definitely buy what you want. "

  According to this method, the reporter asked an outdoor equipment store on the platform of JD.COM Mall, and the other party replied: "Take a wolf alarm in 59 yuan, and we will note that we will send a wolf spray." Another outdoor sports store customer service offered to add QQ or WeChat for details. After the reporter added QQ, the other party sent a letter: "Lipstick anti-wolf spray 45 yuan postage."

  In addition, the reporter entered "anti-wolf spray" on Baidu, 360 and other search platforms, and most of them were websites that blatantly sold anti-wolf spray, with various models, appearances and types, and pictures and texts were very detailed.

  Online sales of prohibited items have been repeatedly banned, and there is a blind spot in multi-head supervision.

  Why are online sales of contraband prohibited? What are the difficulties in supervising the online sale of contraband?

  "The network is open, virtual and convenient, which objectively provides living space for prohibited items." Jing Linbo, director of China Social Science Evaluation Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, said.

  "There is no unified catalogue for online contraband, which makes supervision more difficult." Jing Linbo said. What are the contraband altogether? Actually, it’s hard to say clearly. For example, simulation guns, both plastic toy guns, prop guns, etc., also have simulation guns with firing functions similar to guns. According to the Identification Standard for Simulation Guns, the shape and color are the same as those of standard guns, and a piece of paper can be punched in a distance of 5 to 7 meters. Toy guns with standard gun structures belong to simulation guns and will be banned by the police. Take dart blowing as an example. There are both children’s toy-style sucker darts and metal darts that can be sharpened or even coated with anesthetic ether. The latter can stun small animals and undoubtedly cause harm to people. However, there is no "standard for determining dart blowing" that stipulates which darts should be banned.

  "Online sale of contraband involves food and drug, industrial and commercial administration, public security organs and other regulatory authorities. In recent years, with the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, the supervision of online sales of contraband also involves customs. In the case of multi-sector supervision, it is easy to have management blind spots, and how to improve the efficiency of coordinated operations is also a challenge. " Jing Linbo said.

  Before the introduction of relevant laws, the platform party cannot evade its responsibilities.

  The reporter found that it is also difficult to report the e-commerce that sells contraband and confirm the address of the business. The reporter called 12345 Beijing non-emergency rescue service center to report. The staff was willing to accept the report of illegal sales of prohibited items, but asked for the specific address of the merchant. The reporter could not find the address of the merchant on the e-commerce platform. The staff of the service center suggested that the reporter report to the public security bureau of the e-commerce platform. The reporter called the alarm desk of Beijing Yizhuang Economic and Technological Development Zone Public Security Bureau, where JD.COM’s headquarters is located. The other party said: "There are so many businesses on the JD.COM platform that we can’t check them unless we provide the address of the business selling contraband and report it to the local police station."

  "It is difficult to supervise the online sale of prohibited items. The crux lies in the fact that the e-commerce platform and the search platform are not in place for the certification of the main qualifications of online stores and the filing of business categories. China urgently needs a systematic and complete law and regulation for online retailing, and clarifies the responsibilities of the platform. However, during the transition period when the law has not yet been promulgated, the platform side should not evade its responsibilities. " Jing Linbo said.

  Since searching online for products such as darts and hunting bows, e-commerce platforms and search platforms have pushed such product information to reporters from time to time, and their "intelligent" penetration ability can be seen. This makes people lament: why don’t online shopping platforms use this "intelligence" to supervise the sale of contraband? For example, establish an accurate keyword screening system, refine category management, clearly define the product content and name under each category, and prevent one product from escaping the keyword search screening function … … Obviously, technology is not a "thing" to manage contraband. The key is whether you want to manage it or not.