Recently, US President Biden identified the massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during World War I as "genocide". In this regard, the Turkish Foreign Ministry and several senior officials expressed strong condemnation, and the Turkish side even summoned the US ambassador to Turkey. Turkish President Erdogan said after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, the capital, on April 26th local time that "the President of the United States made unfounded, unfair and untrue comments about the tragedy that happened in our region more than a century ago", which was a "wrong step". It would undermine the relationship between the United States and Turkey, and I hope Biden would withdraw his remarks as soon as possible. He said, "If you say ‘ Genocide ’ Then you need to look in the mirror and evaluate it. I don’t even need to mention Native Americans, it’s obvious what happened. "
So what impact will the "mutual choking" between the United States and Turkey have on the relations between the two countries? Will Turkey take tough countermeasures?
Two newspapers and a late politician.
On April 24, US President Biden issued a statement: "On this day every year, we commemorate all the people who died in the genocide against Armenians during the Ottoman Empire and are committed to preventing such atrocities from happening again."
△ Screenshot of the statement issued by US President Biden (Source: White House website)
On the second day of Biden’s statement, Turkish netizens forwarded photos of two Turkish newspapers published in 1975.
One is the front page photo of the Turkish newspaper Freedom on July 26, 1975, with the headline: "We control the military base".
The other is a front-page photo of Turkey’s "National Daily" on July 27, 1975. The headline reads: "The American flag in the base is lowered and the Turkish flag is raised."
On July 25, 1975, in retaliation for the arms embargo imposed by the United States on Turkey, Turkey announced the closure of American military facilities in its territory. This is what these two front pages reported.
Biden’s statement this time allowed the Turks to turn these two newspapers out of the dust of history. Some netizens commented: "Since we can do it before, why not now?"
The word "ecevit" has also made a hot search in Turkey. Ecevit, a late Turkish politician, served as Turkish Prime Minister for four times. In 1978, the United States lifted the arms embargo on Turkey, but then Turkish Prime Minister ecevit resisted the pressure and did not reopen the US military base. Forty-three years later, Turkish netizens commented on ecevit: "He was a fearless prime minister" and "We commemorate the late ecevit with respect".
△ Former Turkish Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit (data map)
Through these two newspapers and ecevit, Turkish netizens expressed their anger at Biden’s statement. One netizen even said: "The first thing to do now is to close the US military base and recall our ambassador, and declare them persona non grata to expel them."
Some Turks even went to the US Consulate in Istanbul to demonstrate and protest. They waved the Turkish flag and shouted the slogan "American soldiers, get out of Turkey".
△ After Biden’s statement was released, some Turks demonstrated in front of the US Consulate in Istanbul. (Source: Associated Press)
In addition to the repercussions aroused by the Turkish people, Turkish officials also responded to Biden’s statement at the first time.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement on April 24th, rejecting and condemning the statement of the President of the United States in the strongest way, saying that the statement had no academic and legal basis and no evidence to support it. Late that night, the Turkish Foreign Ministry summoned Satterfield, the American ambassador to Turkey, and told him that Biden’s statement was unacceptable. A number of senior Turkish political officials also expressed their views on social media platforms, refusing to accept and strongly condemning Biden’s statement.
For a long time, Armenians have been pushing American officials to recognize the Armenian tragedy as "genocide". In 2019, the US Congress passed a resolution recognizing the Armenian tragedy as "genocide". However, previous American presidents always avoided using the word "genocide" to avoid angering NATO ally Turkey. However, Biden made a different choice and became the first American president to officially recognize the incident as "genocide."
Analyst: Ignoring Biden’s words and returning to normal life is the best choice.
Although senior Turkish officials strongly condemned Biden’s statement on April 24 at the first time, Turkish President Erdogan did not respond immediately, and he first expressed his opinion on April 26. Some of Erdogan’s words are fierce, but some media analysts believe that this fiercely worded response has essentially maintained restraint.
Erdogan, while asking the US to correct its mistakes, also said that he and Biden will talk about this issue when they meet in June. He said that the two sides should put aside the issue of damaging bilateral relations and focus on the future. Erdogan did not announce any specific countermeasures.
"Turkey will ignore Biden’s words and return to normal life. In my opinion, this is also the best choice for Turkey. " Hussein Baze, director of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute, said. He believes that the United States has more sanctions than Turkey. What Turkey can do is to recall the ambassador and close the military base in Ingeer, but there will be no more measures against the United States. Turkey needs America more than America needs Turkey. Turkey is unlikely to take tough measures against the United States.
△ Hussein Baze, Director of the Turkish Institute of Foreign Policy, was interviewed by the General Desk reporter.
Selcuk Colakoglu, director of Turkey’s Asia-Pacific Research Center, said that Turkey’s economy is too fragile to bear the consequences of increasingly tense political relations with the United States. After Biden’s statement, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar plummeted on Monday (April 26), which was close to the historical low and once fell to 8.425. If the relationship between the United States and Turkey is tense again, or the devaluation of the lira is accelerated, it will make Turkey’s economy worse.
△ Selcuk Colakoglu, Director of the Turkish Asia-Pacific Research Center, was interviewed by the General Desk reporter.
Although Biden’s statement made Turkey dissatisfied, coping with the epidemic is the top priority for the Turkish government at present. Since March, the epidemic situation in Turkey has turned sharply, and the number of newly confirmed cases in Turkey once exceeded 60,000. On April 29th, more than 4.7 million cases were diagnosed in Turkey, ranking fifth in the world. In the face of the severe epidemic situation, Turkey began to implement an uninterrupted "grounded order" for nearly three weeks from April 29th. In the face of a serious epidemic, the priority of Biden’s statement has also dropped.
US Secretary of State: Turkey is a key ally, but the United States also wants to express differences.
On April 28th, US Secretary of State Blinken told foreign media that Biden’s statement was to pay tribute to the victims, not to blame them.
On the relationship between the United States and Turkey, Blinken said that Turkey is a key ally of the United States and NATO, and the two countries have cooperated in many international and regional affairs. He said: "Like most countries, we have differences. In order to show respect to Turkey, we clearly, directly and honestly show our differences. "
△ US Secretary of State Blinken (data map)
In fact, a week ago, Biden and Erdogan expressed their willingness to continue cooperation and manage differences during the call. The statement of the Information Bureau of the Turkish Presidential Office stated that the leaders of Turkey and the United States agreed on the strategic characteristics of bilateral relations and the importance of deepening cooperation on mutually beneficial issues. The White House statement said that Biden expressed interest in establishing constructive bilateral relations by expanding cooperation areas and effectively managing differences during the call.
Many media in Turkey carefully analyzed Biden’s statement and found that the United States avoided pointing the finger directly at Turkey. Biden did not directly mention Turkey in his statement, and the main body of atrocities against Armenians mentioned in the statement was the Ottoman Empire. At the same time, the statement said that Armenian intellectuals and group leaders were arrested in Constantinople, without mentioning Istanbul. Constantinople is the capital of the Ottoman Empire and the old name of Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey.
Turkey’s geographical position is of great strategic significance to the United States. The Bosporus Strait and the Da Daniil Strait are the throat arteries to enter the Black Sea. The United States is not a country bordering the Black Sea. According to the Montreux Treaty signed in 1936, American warships need to notify Turkey in advance when they enter the Black Sea. Previously, in view of the tense situation in Ukraine, the United States had planned to send destroyers Roosevelt and Donald Cook to enter the Black Sea via the Bosphorus Strait in Turkey, and stayed until early May.
△ American warships passing through the Bosphorus Strait, taken in October 2020. (Source: Reuters)
In addition, Ingeer Lik Air Force Base in Adana province in southeastern Turkey also played an important role in the United States’ fight against extremist organizations. The Turkish army is also an important force of NATO Coalition forces in Afghanistan.
△ The US military conducted a drill at Ingeer Lick Air Force Base (Source: official website, Lick Air Force Base, Ingeer)
Analysts believe that Turkey and the United States are both NATO members with a long history of cooperation, and the relationship between the two countries is unlikely to fall apart. Although the two countries have differences on many issues, cooperation will continue.
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