Since the United States provoked a trade war, many experts and scholars in the United States have voiced their voices, criticizing that the US government’s trade policy does not conform to the trend of the times of deepening economic globalization and increasingly blending interests of various countries, affecting the interests of enterprises and consumers in the global value chain and damaging the global multilateral trading system and the global economic recovery process.
China goods imported by the United States contain added value belonging to enterprises in other countries, including American enterprises.
Today, with the deepening of economic globalization, commodities of various countries are integrated and interdependent through value chains and industrial chains. American scholars generally believe that the US government’s trade policy artificially disrupts the existing normal global economic and trade cooperation, and its negative impact will spread to global enterprises including American enterprises.
Mary Lovely, a professor of economics at Syracuse University and a researcher at Peterson Institute for International Economics, published an article in The New York Times, pointing out that about 60% of China’s products exported to the United States are produced by factories owned by non-China enterprises. Many of these factories produce customized parts for American manufacturers. This means that the tariffs imposed by the US government on China actually affect many American (and European) companies with factories in China. They can only bear the import duties themselves or pass them on to American consumers by raising the prices of their products.
Lovely further pointed out in the article that China goods imported by the United States contain added value belonging to enterprises in other countries, including American enterprises. For example, Apple mobile phones imported from China in the United States include Korean display screens, Japanese chips, American design and programming, etc. Lovely believes that in the process of escalating trade disputes between the United States and China, the China administration has increased its commitment to the global supply chain, which is in sharp contrast with the US government, which is isolating American manufacturers.
Du Dawei, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, and Wang Zhi, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in China, jointly published an article pointing out that two thirds of world trade now takes place through global value chains, and the United States, according to the so-called 301 investigation, focuses on taxing China’s information and communication technology products. In fact, in terms of computers and electronic equipment, less than half of the added value of China’s export products belongs to China, and some even less than 10%, and the rest belongs to other countries. At the same time, more than half of China’s exports in this category come from multinational companies operating in China.
Joseph stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and a professor at Columbia University, believes that the United States provoked a trade war, which led to an increase in uncertainty. He believes that there is something wrong with the American economy, but it is not caused by China. America’s problem is a domestic problem, that is, saving too little. As Americans realize that they have lost double interests from this trade war — — Employment opportunities will be reduced, while commodity prices will rise — — Public opposition will rise further.
The way the United States acts can easily lead to the fragmentation of the global trading system, resulting in a rapid and destructive decline in global trade volume.
The current multilateral trading system is an important foundation for the normal operation of the global economy. In the eyes of American experts and scholars, the United States government provoked a trade war with a strong unilateralist and protectionist thinking behind it, which impacted the current multilateral trading system and harmed the common interests of the international community.
Paul krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, pointed out that the current behavior of the United States can easily lead to the fragmentation of the global trading system, resulting in a rapid and destructive decline in global trade volume. What the American government doesn’t understand is that the world economy is not a game that only surplus countries can win, and disrupting the global supply chain will harm everyone’s interests.
Dai Jie, a professor of law and political science at the University of Pennsylvania, believes that the abandonment of multilateralism by the United States will have a systemic impact. Since the end of World War II, the global economic governance structure represented by the WTO, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank has been supported by the United States, but at present, the policies of the US government will have a disturbing impact on the global economic order. "This order itself is beneficial to the whole world and belongs to global public goods".
J. Stapleton Roy, a senior researcher at Woodrow Wilson Center in the United States, said that the US government used to regard economic relations as a means to suppress other countries, but this was not the mainstream of global economic and trade relations. On the issue of economic and trade negotiations, European and Asia-Pacific economies are more supportive of multilateral channels, but the US government does not trust multilateral tracks. "Because multilateral negotiations will inevitably require all parties to make some compromises, and the so-called negotiations of the US government have no room for compromise, because they regard compromise as a failure."
Many American scholars believe that it is totally short-sighted to impact the current multilateral trading system at will in terms of the long-term development of the American economy. Wendy Cutler, deputy director of the Policy Research Institute of the Asia Society, pointed out that the trade war will lead to global supply chains and regional supply chains increasingly bypassing the United States. He warned that if the rest of the world builds a new trade structure that does not include the United States, the United States will be "marginalized" and "American workers, farmers and companies will be blocked from important markets."
Most of the global economic growth is driven by the United States and China, and this driving force is threatened by the escalation of trade friction.
When analyzing the future global economic trend, the US government provoked a trade war and became a "confidence killer" for all parties concerned. Experts believe that this will undermine the hard-won recovery and shake the foundation of global economic growth.
When analyzing the global economic prospects in 2018, nouriel roubini, a professor of economics at new york University, pointed out that a major challenge facing the global economy this year is that the policies of the US government are creating more uncertainties. Most of the global economic growth is driven by the United States and China, and this driving force is threatened by the escalation of trade friction. In addition to launching a trade war, the Trump administration is also undermining the global economic and geostrategic order established after World War II.
Jim O ‘Neill, former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, pointed out that 85% of the global nominal GDP growth since 2010 can be attributed to the United States and China. If the United States and China fall into a trade war, both countries will lose, and the world economy will also lose. Consumption accounts for 70% of the GDP of the United States. Active international trade and a stable and friendly investment environment are the keys to the sustainable growth of the American economy. I hope that the Trump administration can change its mind before "stifling the recovery that the world is waiting for".
Ban Anzu, a columnist of The Wall Street Journal, compared the differences between the United States’ trade war against China this time and Japan’s trade war in history. He pointed out that the Japanese market was closed to American companies as a whole in 1980s, but the China market was relatively open, and these companies were highly dependent on sales in China. The impact of the US-China trade war will spread far beyond the scope of the belligerents themselves, and American allies in the Asian supply chain will become the early targets of impact. "If the tension escalates to a serious enough level, the trade war may destroy the entire global trade framework."
Some American scholars believe that even from the perspective of enhancing the competitiveness of the American economy, trade blackmail is not a reasonable choice. Raphael Leif, president of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote that it is wrong to think that aggressive defensive measures can ensure the success of America’s own technology. The practice of the United States "is nothing more than double locking all our doors, which will only imprison us in mediocrity."
(People’s Daily, Washington, August 12th)